CT gas prices could take a year to return to normal, analyst says
Connecticut gas prices have dropped 44 cents in a month, thanks to an expected deal to end the war in Iran. However, an industry group is warning drivers that prices will fall slowly, “if everything goes perfectly.”
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Despite a pending deal to end the four-month-long war in Iran, gas prices could take more than a year to return to pre-conflict levels, according to a trade group representing hundreds of service stations across Connecticut.
And that’s only "if everything goes perfectly,” analysts say.
FALLING PRICES
Gas prices have dropped dramatically after President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get oil tankers moving again.
The purported deal, which still hasn’t been made public, will be signed on Friday at a Swiss resort, the country’s foreign ministry announced.
“It’s a great document,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday.
Crude oil futures fell to $72 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest price since March 2.
Here in Connecticut, the average price for regular fuel is $4.20 – down 14 cents in the last week and 44 cents from a month ago – according to AAA.
“Amazing. Praise the Lord,” said Norwalk driver Gabi Cossuto. “It’s been bad. We’ve gone from spending maybe $40 on a tank to 60 or 70.”
A YEAR TO PRE-WAR LEVELS?
That's still a far cry from $3.09, the average price one year ago. And analysts said it could take a long time to get back there.
“Pre-war levels will not be seen for well over a year – and that’s if everything goes perfectly,” said Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association. “It will be slow and it will be steady as everyone figures out how world supply starts to reopen.”
Herb said it will take weeks, or even months, to clear the supply backlog. Middle East oil production has largely shut down as tankers remain stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving no room to store crude.
And that’s assuming the memorandum of understanding with Iran holds. The White House still hasn’t released full details of the agreement.
“I’ll not only release it, I’ll probably have a press conference and read it to you word by word so that the press covers it accurately,” Trump said. “Here’s what it says. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon; that’s what it says. It won't have one to buy, to develop. They will not have a nuclear weapon.”
But is Iran on the same page?
The regime’s top diplomat said the deal requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon – a condition Israel has already rejected.
“A LOT OF UNKNOWN”
Factors beyond Iran could also keep prices higher, including inflation and extreme weather.
“We’re just entering hurricane season,” Herb said. “There still is a war between Russia and Ukraine that can throw a lot of different curve balls our way.”
Some drivers aren’t getting excited yet.
“It just feels unpredictable right now,” said Zach Felts, of Norwalk. “Stabilizing feels distant. Feels like there’s still a lot of unknown.”
But Cossuto said any savings is good news.
“I’m very hopeful,” she said. “I have to believe that something good will come of it.”
