Winter Weather Outlook: How El Niño or La Niña affect weather patterns in the tri-state area
To determine if we are in an El Niño or La Niña, meteorologists look to the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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One of the most-known factors for weather patterns globally and in the tri-state area year-round is El Niño versus La Niña. Both have distinct characteristics that impact how warm or cold our weather is, as well as if it is dry, wet, or wintry.
To determine if we are in an El Niño or La Niña, meteorologists look to the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a long and narrow area along the equator from the South American coast to 180° longitude that holds the key to El Niño or La Niña. That area can be broken up into four "Niño zones," Ninos 1 through 4. The most important area with the biggest impact on weather patterns is known as "Nino 3.4" located within Ninos 3 and 4.
Above-average (warmer) water temperatures at the surface, known as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), indicate an El Niño. The opposite, with below-average (colder) SSTs indicate a La Niña. What if there is a mix of both or little difference? That is known as ENSO neutral (ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, which is super technical), or for simpler non-official terms, La Nada. The difference between the three is much bigger than you think, as weather patterns can bring wildly different conditions depending on the time of year.
So, what is the Equatorial Pacific currently in? It is teetering between a weak La Niña and a La Nada. There is some mix of warmer and colder-than-normal SSTs, with more colder SSTs in that vital Niño 3.4 region. How could this help the winter forecast?
There have been multiple years in the past, with records stemming back to the 1800s, that have had similar conditions to right now. How can we analyze the present with the past to predict the future?
