Vote 2026: New poll gives Erin Stewart big lead in GOP governor’s race. But experts say it doesn’t mean much
An internal poll from the Erin Stewart campaign gives the longtime New Britain mayor a commanding lead for the 2026 Republican nomination.
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Even though the race for governor is still more than a year away, we already have our first poll on the Republican side.
It gives New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart a commanding lead.
But political analysts said take the results with a grain of salt.
POLL RESULTS
The first – and biggest – caveat is that the survey is an internal poll conducted for Stewart’s campaign. It gives her 42% support in a GOP nominating contest, with Greenwich state Sen. Ryan Fazio receiving 13%, even though he just got in the race last week.
Stewart announced she is “exploring” a run for governor in January. Since then, she has raised $305,000.
The poll is bad news for Westport First Selectman Jen Tooker, who captured just 3%, despite entering the race in March. Seven percent of Republicans are looking at other candidates.
But here is the number to focus on: 35%. That's how many Republican voters are undecided.
“This is a wide-open race. We do not want to draw any conclusions from this very early poll,” said Dr. Gary Rose, a veteran political Analyst at Sacred Heart University. “I don't doubt that right now she is the front-runner. At the same time, I do question just how this poll was done and the motivation behind it.”
GOP VOTERS WANT A CHANGE?
Stewart was just 26 years old when she was first elected mayor of New Britain – a working-class, primarily Democratic city – 12 years ago.
Stewart said her poll proves that Republican voters want a change.
“I don’t want them to make the same mistakes that they have made in the past by nominating an unelectable candidate in a general election,” she said.
Critics claimed the poll was slanted in favor of Stewart and against candidates like Fazio and Tooker. One question asked if respondents agreed that, “We need someone from outside of Fairfield County with a proven history of winning elections.”
Fazio believes that he is the GOP’s best chance in 2026.
“I’ve been able to win in a state Senate district that Democrats at the national level win by 15 to 20%. I’ve won it repeatedly,” he told News 12 Connecticut’s “Power and Politics.”
TRUMP FACTOR
And then there’s the Republican not in the race, Donald Trump, who scored a 93% approval rating in Stewart’s poll.
Both candidates only recently embraced the president, but Fazio has been lining up endorsements from MAGA stalwarts like conservative state Sen. Rob Sampson (R-Wolcott).
Whoever wins will most likely face Gov. Ned Lamont, a centrist Democrat who is one of the nation’s most popular governors.
“It’s a real challenge,” said Rose. “They have to win their base; they have to win the Republican base. And then, when that is over, they have to win the middle.”
Stewart and Lamont are not officially in the race yet. Both have said they will make a final announcement by this fall.
